Table 2 Performance comparison of alternative estimators: mean error of prediction. Results obtained on average over 100 realizations generated under two different population size scenarios and 3 types of risk map (1 = observed, 2 = smooth, 3 = random). Poisson kriging was conducted with the semivariogram estimated from the underlying risk values (true γR(h)) or the simulated mortality rates. Bold numbers refer to best performances outside the ideal case where the true semivariogram of risk is known.
Estimators | WF population | BF population | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BREAST CANCER | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 |
Observed rates | -0.006 | 0.004 | -0.020 | -0.221 | 0.141 | -0.198 |
Population-weighted average | 0.996 | 0.491 | 0.303 | 1.654 | 0.720 | 0.562 |
Global Empirical Bayes | 1.245 | 1.127 | 0.162 | 3.094 | 1.921 | 0.581 |
Local Empirical Bayes | 0.586 | 0.395 | 0.130 | 1.623 | 0.737 | 0.572 |
Poisson kriging (true γR(h)) | 0.237 | 0.175 | 0.005 | 1.264 | 0.600 | 0.372 |
Poisson kriging | 0.228 | 0.193 | 0.016 | 1.441 | 0.622 | 0.412 |
CERVIX CANCER | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Observed rates | 0.000 | 0.001 | -0.003 | 0.248 | 0.059 | -0.010 |
Population-weighted average | -0.362 | -0.196 | -0.139 | -0.406 | -0.261 | -0.270 |
Global Empirical Bayes | -0.386 | -0.398 | -0.092 | -0.717 | -0.697 | -0.337 |
Local Empirical Bayes | -0.184 | -0.142 | -0.066 | -0.331 | -0.215 | -0.203 |
Poisson kriging (true γR(h)) | -0.051 | -0.024 | -0.034 | -0.299 | -0.198 | -0.197 |
Poisson kriging | -0.049 | -0.019 | -0.028 | -0.221 | -0.118 | -0.167 |