Application of satellite precipitation data to analyse and model arbovirus activity in the tropics

Table 10 Logistic regression employing lagged [lag = 2 months] mr plus lagged [lag = 3 months] daa to predict monthly MVEV test site status in the Kimberley

Variable	Coefficient (SE)	p	Odds ratio (95%)
Intercept	-2.854 (0.183)	< 0.01 ^a
Lagged mr (× 100 mm)	0.3767 (0.083)	< 0.01 ^a	1.46 (1.24-1.72) ^b
Lagged *daa*	0.124 (0.026)	< 0.01 ^a	1.13 (1.08-1.19) ^c

AIC: 557.5
ROC AUC: 0.74
^a Significance
^bInterpretation: after adjusting for the effect of lagged daa, 100 mm increases in lagged mr rainfall increased the odds of a site monthly testing positive to MVEV by a factor of 1.46 (95% CI 1.24 - 1.72)
^cInterpretation: after adjusting for the effect of lagged mr, single day increases in daa increased the odds of a site monthly testing positive to MVEV by a factor of 1.13 (95% CI 1.08 - 1.19)

ISSN: 1476-072X