Application of satellite precipitation data to analyse and model arbovirus activity in the tropics

Table 11 Logistic regression employing lagged [lag = 3 months] mr plus lagged [lag = 3 months] daa to predict monthly MVEV test site status in the Pilbara

Variable	Coefficient (SE)	p	Odds ratio (95%)
Intercept	-3.411 (0.194)	< 0.01 ^a
Lagged mr (× 100 mm)	1.083 (0.167)	< 0.01 ^a	2.95 (2.14-4.15) ^b
Lagged *daa*	0.096 (0.0350)	< 0.01 ^a	1.10 (1.02-1.18) ^c

AIC: 448.54
ROC AUC: 0.80
^a Significance
^bInterpretation: after adjusting for the effect of lagged daa, 100 mm increases in lagged mr rainfall increased the odds of a site monthly testing positive to MVEV by a factor of 2.95 (95% CI 2.14 - 4.15)
^cInterpretation: after adjusting for the effect of lagged mr, single day increases in daa increased the odds of a site monthly testing positive to MVEV by a factor of 1.10 (95% CI 1.02 - 1.18)

ISSN: 1476-072X