Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina

Table 1 Statistical model variables selection

Model	Fixed variables	Kappa	AIC
Null w/o random	1	0	487.9
Null	1	0.54	373.5
Full	DI.wa + prc + lo.po + MinT + WI + DPT	0.69	293.9
Final	DI.wa + prc + lo.po + DPT	0.71	292.0
Final–DPT	DI.wa + prc + lo.po	0.66	302.9
Partial geographic	DI.wa + DI.en + AL	0.62	328.6
Partial climatic	MeanT + WI	0.61	342.9
Partial demographic	prc + lo.po	0.68	308.9

Model selection for the probability of occurrence of a dengue case in Argentina between 2001 and 2011. All models except indicated contain the grouping variable Province as random factor. See Table 4 for variables abbreviations.

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