Spatial modelling of healthcare utilisation for treatment of fever in Namibia

Table 3 Estimated number of children under the age of five by province and their modelled treatment seeking for fever at the nearest public health facility

	Estimated number of children under five years of age in 2009	Estimated number of children under five years of age within a PHF¹ catchment	Estimated number of fever cases among children under five years of age based on MIS prevalence	Number(Percentage) of children under five years of age with fever likely to attend a PHF¹	Number(Percentage) of children under five years of age with fever not likely to attend a PHF¹
Region
Caprivi	8,881	8,741	2,433	1,637(67.3)	796(32.7)
Kavango	20,244	20,374	4,825	3,264(67.6)	1,561(32.4)
Kunene	8,192	7,363	1,425	588(41.3)	837(58.7)
Ohangwena	32,167	30,863	3,793	2,695(71)	1,098(29.0)
Omaheke	11,550	11,051	1,974	1,060(53.7)	914(46.3)
Omusati	27,386	26,993	3,478	2,522(72.5)	956(27.5)
Oshana	14,973	13,088	2,186	1,648(75.4)	538(24.6)
Oshikoto	19,918	23,661²	1,395	932(66.8)	463(33.2)
Otjozondjupa	18,977	18,160	3,321	1,868(56.3)	1,453(43.7)
Travel time
< 30 minutes	51,791	51,791	8,021	6,056(75.5)	1,965(24.5)
> 30 minutes - < 1 hour	98,620	98,620	14,902	11,218(75.3)	3,684(24.7)
> 1 - < 2 hours	138,219	138,219	19,035	14,136(74.3)	4,898(25.7)
> 2 - < 3 hours	160,294	160,294	20,799	15,279(73.5)	5,520(26.5)
> 3 hours	1,992	-	4,031	934(23.2)	3,096(76.8)
Probability of attendance
< 0.50	13,698	11,808	2,277	19(0.8)	2,258(99.2)
> 0.50 - < 0.60	7,820	7,908	1,356	717(52.9)	639(47.1)
> 0.60- < 0.70	18,944	18,963	2,928	1,925(65.7)	1,003(34.3)
> 0.70- < 0.75	120,862	121,615	18,269	13,553(74.2)	4,716(25.8)
Total	162,286	160,294 ³	24,830	16,214 (65.3)	8,616 (34.7)

1. PHF is an abbreviation for 'Public Health Facility', which in this case does not include private facilities or privates for profit
2. For Oshikoto region, the estimated number of children (0-4 years) slightly exceeds the overall population estimate for the region. This is because the catchment boundaries in some cases overlap the regional boundaries
3. The total number of children 0-4 years old in catchment boundaries was lower than the total estimated under fives population because of (a) not all children within the catchment were assumed to use the public health facility (b) the catchment boundaries did not covering 100% of the entire population by limiting maximum travel time to 3 hours from the decay model

ISSN: 1476-072X