Table 2 Threshold models for influenza population loss
From: A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918–19
Coefficient estimate | Model specification: District-specific intercepts and growth rates | |
|---|---|---|
Threshold point estimate | Alternate threshold | |
Time trend (β10) | † | † |
Flu dummy (β20) | −0.2965*** | −0.3144*** |
(0.0126) | (0.0172) | |
Low density * flu dummy (β30) | 0.0694*** | 0.0596*** |
(0.0246) | (0.0221) | |
Time trend * flu dummy (β40) | † | † |
Number of obs. | 1188 | 1188 |
R 2 | 0.9964 | 0.9964 |
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC PHENOMENA | ||
Threshold population density | 175 | 435 |
Range of possible thresholds (5% level of significance) | 148--209 | 381--464 |
Number (percentage) of districts outside threshold range | 110 (56%) | |
Population loss as % of population, low density districts | −3.72% | −3.51% |
Population loss as % of population, high density districts | −4.69% | −5.85% |