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Table 3 Threshold models for influenza population loss with Calcutta outlier

From: A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918–19

  Model specification: District-specific intercepts and growth rates
  Threshold point estimate Alternate threshold 1 Alternate threshold 2
Time trend (β10)
Flu dummy (β20) −0.7676*** −0.2997*** −0.3201***
(0.1546) (0.0128) (0.0174)
Low density * flu dummy (β30) 0.4894*** 0.0726*** 0.0654***
(0.1550) (0.0250) (0.0224)
Time trend * flu dummy (β40)
Number of obs. 1194 1194 1194
R 2 0.9963 0.9963 0.9963
  KEY DEMOGRAPHIC PHENOMENA
Threshold population density 19067 175 435
Range of possible thresholds (5% level of significance) 1138-19067 175-207 430-464
Number (percentage) of districts outside threshold range 52 (26%)
Population loss as % of population, low density districts −4.44% −3.72% −3.51%
Population loss as % of population, high density districts −21.15% −4.81% −6.06%
  1. Standard errors in parentheses.
  2. *** p < 0.01.
  3. †Multiple estimates, one corresponding to each district.