Figure 2

Precipitation data from the Kisumu airport for March 2011 through July 2012. Each point along the x-axis represents one day. The vertical bars show the daily precipitation total. The solid line shows the cumulative 30-day precipitation total (i.e. the level of the line for each day represents the summation of precipitation totals over the previous 30 days), which was used in the logistic regression model for the 15-month dataset. Similarly, the dashed line shows the daily fluctuation of the cumulative 21-day total used in the random forest model of the same data. Circles and squares show the last day of ground surveys for each month in Aduoyo-Miyare and Nguka. Kisumu airport is about 40 km east of Asembo.