Table 3 Performance comparison of alternative estimators: mean square error of prediction. Results obtained on average over 100 realizations generated under two different population size scenarios and 3 types of risk map (1 = observed, 2 = smooth, 3 = random). Poisson kriging was conducted with the semivariogram estimated from the underlying risk values (true γ_R(h)) or the simulated mortality rates. Bold numbers refer to best performances outside the ideal case where the true semivariogram of risk is known.

4.426

4.462

4.777

1178

1461

1321

3.249

1.085

8.159

8.093

3.753

11.40

5.090

4.591

2.286

17.09

9.536

6.853

1.514

0.811

2.424

8.631

5.543

11.02

0.828

0.593

2.376

6.154

3.534

9.648

0.857

0.625

2.452

7.107

3.741

10.03

0.803

0.802

0.738

367

257

232

0.590

0.149

1.006

1.088

0.617

1.468

0.556

0.496

0.318

1.387

1.079

0.906

0.264

0.116

0.341

3.143

1.685

3.440

0.177

0.041

0.313

0.881

0.566

1.233

0.179

0.045

0.335

1.117

0.764

1.383