Table 7 Performance comparison of alternative estimators: spread of the model of uncertainty. Results obtained on average over 100 realizations generated under two different population size scenarios and 3 types of risk map (1 = observed, 2 = smooth, 3 = random). Poisson kriging was conducted with the semivariogram estimated from the underlying risk values (true γ_R(h)) or the simulated mortality rates. Bold numbers refer to best performances outside the ideal case where the true semivariogram of risk is known.

5.147

5.002

4.784

22482

21577

20641

4.057

1.603

7.712

17.60

16.28

20.97

2.438

1.681

2.372

31.74

30.42

27.65

2.050

1.143

2.422

16.98

16.53

18.88

0.940

0.603

2.076

2.456

1.890

6.621

1.042

0.470

2.074

8.775

6.663

5.987

0.586

0.608

0.684

2359

2372

2625

0.494

0.242

0.883

2.870

2.631

3.233

0.293

0.259

0.317

4.242

4.327

4.148

0.229

0.170

0.307

2.843

2.722

3.130

0.155

0.043

0.307

0.763

0.711

1.201

0.169

0.069

0.269

1.552

1.825

1.529