Table 3 Sensitivity analysis of the model. Data from the traps presented in Figure 5 are used in these analyses. For the starting condition: a. 7°C for 3 day average, b. 6°C for 3 days, c. 8°C for 3 days and d. 7°C for 2 days. For daily egg mortality (T indicates the mean temperature (°C)): 1. 0.2%/day (5≤T≤30), (0.02(5-T)+0.2)% (T<5), (0.02(T-30)+0.2)% (T >30), 2. 0.2%/day (5≤T≤20), (0.02(5-T)+0.2)% (T<5), (0.02(T-20)+0.2)% (T>20), 3. 0.2%/day (15≤T0≤3), (0.02(15-T)+0.2)% (T<5), (0.02(T-30)+0.2)% (T>30). Totals A, B, C are the annual total mosquito abundance calculated by using an adult daily mortality of: (0.24(T-25)2+5)% for TotalA (this is used in this study), (0.24(T-24)2+5)% for TotalB, (0.24(T-26)2+5)% for TotalC.
From: Predicting outbreaks: a spatial risk assessment of West Nile virus in British Columbia
C. tarsalis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trap of Fig. 5(a)1 | Start | Max | Date of max | Total | Â | Â | Â |
Final model | a | 17.55 | Jul.25 | 326.8 | Â | Â | Â |
Model1 | b | 17.55 | Jul.25 | 326.8 | Â | Â | Â |
Model2 | c | 17.55 | Jul.25 | 326.8 | Â | Â | Â |
Model3 | d | 17.48 | Jul.25 | 325.5 | Â | Â | Â |
Trap of Fig. 5(a)2 | |||||||
Final model | a | 18.80 | Jul.22 | 396.3 | Â | Â | Â |
Model1 | b | 18.80 | Jul.22 | 396.3 | Â | Â | Â |
Model2 | c | 18.80 | Jul.22 | 396.3 | Â | Â | Â |
Model3 | d | 18.80 | Jul.22 | 396.3 | Â | Â | Â |
C. pipiens | |||||||
| Â | Start | Egg Mortality | Max | Date of Max | TotalA | TotalB | TotalC |
Trap of Fig. 5(b)1 | |||||||
Final model | a | 1 | 53.00 | Aug.18 | 868.0 | 1047.0 | 719.9 |
Model1 | a | 2 | 53.00 | Aug.18 | 868.0 | 1047.0 | 719.9 |
Model2 | a | 3 | 52.90 | Aug.18 | 866.4 | 1045.0 | 718.6 |
Model3 | b | 1 | 53.00 | Aug.18 | 868.0 | 1047.0 | 719.9 |
Model4 | b | 2 | 53.00 | Aug.18 | 868.0 | 1047.0 | 719.9 |
Model5 | b | 3 | 52.90 | Aug.18 | 866.4 | 1045.0 | 718.6 |
Model6 | c | 1 | 53.00 | Aug.18 | 868.0 | 1047.0 | 719.9 |
Model7 | c | 2 | 53.00 | Aug.18 | 868.0 | 1047.0 | 719.9 |
Model8 | c | 3 | 52.90 | Aug.18 | 866.4 | 1045.0 | 718.6 |
Trap of Fig. 5(b)2 | |||||||
Final model | a | 1 | 53.04 | Aug.12 | 1009.4 | 1186.8 | 851.1 |
Model1 | a | 2 | 53.03 | Aug.12 | 1009.2 | 1186.6 | 850.9 |
Model2 | a | 3 | 52.68 | Aug.12 | 1002.4 | 1178.7 | 845.2 |
Model3 | b | 1 | 53.04 | Aug.12 | 1009.4 | 1186.8 | 851.1 |
Model4 | b | 2 | 53.03 | Aug.12 | 1009.2 | 1186.6 | 850.9 |
Model5 | b | 3 | 52.68 | Aug.12 | 1002.4 | 1178.7 | 845.2 |
Model6 | c | 1 | 53.04 | Aug.12 | 1009.4 | 1186.8 | 851.1 |
Model7 | c | 2 | 53.03 | Aug.12 | 1009.2 | 1186.6 | 850.9 |
Model8 | c | 3 | 52.68 | Aug.12 | 1002.4 | 1178.7 | 845.2 |