Application of knowledge-driven spatial modelling approaches and uncertainty management to a study of Rift Valley fever in Africa

Table 1 Average changes in endemic and epidemic suitability scores at 10,0000 randomly-selected locations in Africa.

Parameter variation	Average change in suitability score
	Endemic suitability model	Epidemic suitability model
Weight for rainfall increased	10.30	8.84
Weight for rainfall decreased	10.26	8.83
Weight for temperature increased	5.01	0.86
Weight for temperature decreased	5.01	0.89
Weight for elevation increased	1.70	1.58
Weight for elevation decreased	1.70	1.53
Weight for distance to major river increased	2.89	4.19
Weight for distance to major river decreased	2.81	4.10
Weight for distance to minor river increased	1.55	0.96
Weight for distance to minor river decreased	1.49	0.92
Weight for livestock density increased	2.11	1.60
Weight for livestock density decreased	1.99	1.49
Monotonic increasing temperature and rainfall	27.30	-

Parameters of multiple criteria decision making models for Rift Valley fever were varied, including relative weights for factors, which were increased and decreased by 25% of their initial value.

ISSN: 1476-072X