Figure 12

Reproduction of Poisson kriging estimate and variance by the set of simulated risk values. By construction, the mean and variance of the local (i.e. county-specific) distribution of simulated risk values should be equal to the mean (kriging estimate) and variance (kriging variance) of the ccdf sampled using the probability field. The scatterplots indicate that the ensemble of 500 realizations provides a uniform sampling of the local distributions of probability.