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Table 4 Hits and False alarms in forecast models

From: Relationships between climate and year-to-year variability in meningitis outbreaks: A case study in Burkina Faso and Niger

   Predicted
   Non-High
incidence year
High
incidence year
Observed Non-High
incidence year
zeros false alarms
  High
incidence year
Misses hits
  1. Illustration of the contingency table used to evaluate the forecast models. We first transform our data and forecasts into binary time series where only two outcomes are possible, an occurrence of high incidence year or a non-occurrence, according if the log-IR of the year is greater or above the median which divides the dataset in half. We then compute a contingency table based on these two categories. The "hits" ("zeros") category represents the number of high (non-high) incidence rate that have been forecasted as so. The "false alarms" ("misses") category represents the number of non-high (high) incidence years that have been forecasted as high (non-high) incidence years.