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Table 5 Skill scores of the meningitis forecast models

From: Relationships between climate and year-to-year variability in meningitis outbreaks: A case study in Burkina Faso and Niger

  Niger Burkina Faso
  Climate-based model Persistence model Climate-based model Persistence model
CVC 0.50 0.30 0.33 0.55
HR 0.83 0.67 0.74 0.79
FAR 0.47 0.41 0.50 0.28
HKS 0.68 0.63 0.62 0.76
  1. The skill is given by the Cross-Validated Correlation (CVC; 1 being desirable), the Hit Rate (HR; 1 being desirable), the False Alarm Rate (FAR; 0 being desirable) and the scaled Hanssen and Kuipers score (HKS; 1 being desirable). The skill of the climate-based model developed in this study is compared to the reference skill of a persistence-based model (the incidence rate of one year is the same than the incidence rate of the previous year). Since the persistence is the simplest way to produce a forecast, we consider the skill of our climate-based models as useful if it is greater than the persistence skill.