| Niger | Burkina Faso |
---|
| Climate-based model | Persistence model | Climate-based model | Persistence model |
---|
CVC | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.55 |
HR | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
FAR | 0.47 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.28 |
HKS | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
- The skill is given by the Cross-Validated Correlation (CVC; 1 being desirable), the Hit Rate (HR; 1 being desirable), the False Alarm Rate (FAR; 0 being desirable) and the scaled Hanssen and Kuipers score (HKS; 1 being desirable). The skill of the climate-based model developed in this study is compared to the reference skill of a persistence-based model (the incidence rate of one year is the same than the incidence rate of the previous year). Since the persistence is the simplest way to produce a forecast, we consider the skill of our climate-based models as useful if it is greater than the persistence skill.