Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

Table 3 Maxent final models.

Model	AUC (All rodents)	AUC (S. beecheyi)	Test omission rate	Variables	% Contribution	Response	P
A	0.876	0.948	0.115	Bio16	47.3	-	< 0.0001
				Bio18	17.6	+
				Bio15	15.2	+
				Bio5	13.2	Quadratic
				Bio7	6.7	+
B	0.872	0.946	0.115	Bio16	48.7	-	< 0.0001
				Bio5	18	Quadratic
				Bio17	14.1	Quadratic
				Bio15	11.9	+
				Bio7	7.4	+
C	0.842	.914	0.192	Bio16	56.5	Quadratic	< 0.0001
				Bio5	23.8	Quadratic
				Bio7	10	+
				Bio18	9.7	+
D	0.835	0.926	0.154	Bio16	69.5	Quadratic	< 0.0001
				Bio5	16.5	Quadratic
				Bio18	13.9	Quadratic

Test points were used to evaluate omission and 10,000 background points were used to evaluate commission. The reported test omission rate is for equal sensitivity and specificity. The percent contribution of each variable to the models reflects the increase in regularized gain when added to the contribution of the corresponding variable. P-values are for t-test results for the comparison between positive coyote points and negative coyote points (compared by Maxent prediction).

ISSN: 1476-072X