Figure 7

Risk maps for the whole Apulia based on BYM model (MALES, lung cancer mortality, 1992–2001). MCMC estimates of posterior probability δ _i = Pr{θ _i > 1|Y} and relative risk θ _i were reported for each area: for δ _i a scale of 10 equidistant intervals was used, at variance with relative risks for which quintile based maps were drawn. A fully Bayesian BYM model was used for relative risk estimation. The geographical position of the province of Lecce was highlighted by means of a rectangular box. Areas in which > 1 and the corresponding Bayesian 95% credible intervals for relative risks excluded unity were highlighted by means of a dot; areas located outside the province of Lecce, and in which the corresponding relative risk resulted to be significant in the above defined sense, were explicitly marked by an arrow.