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Table 1 Maximum likelihood (SMR) and Bayesian estimates of the relative risk of mortality for lung cancer in the province of Lecce, 1992–2001, for selected areas

From: Geographical clustering of lung cancer in the province of Lecce, Italy: 1992–2001

Istat Code Area Y i E i SMR Significance 95% CI SMR 95% CI Bayes
Males         
75008 Bagnolo del Salento 15 8.87 1.69 0.05 (1.02–1.81) 1.21 (0.92–1.56)
75072 Santa Cesarea Terme 25 15.31 1.63 0.02 (1.10–2.42) 1.23 (0.96–1.55)
75057 Otranto 34 21.24 1.60 0.01 (1.14–2.24) 1.25 (0.99–1.57)
75025 Cursi 28 17.97 1.56 0.02 (1.08–2.26) 1.26 (0.98–1.64)
75061 Poggiardo 41 27.69 1.48 0.02 (1.09–2.01) 1.20 (0.96–1.47)
75018 Castrignano de'Greci 26 18.06 1.44 0.05 (0.98–2.11) 1.20 (0.95–1.50)
75050 Morciano di Leuca 31 21.84 1.42 0.04 (1.00–2.02) 1.17 (0.92–1.51)
75093 Vernole 49 35.39 1.38 0.02 (1.05–1.83) 1.18 (0.95–1.46)
75051 Muro Leccese 37 26.87 1.38 0.04 (1.00–1.94) 1.19 (0.95–1.49)
75005 Andrano 34 24.88 1.37 0.05 (0.98–1.91) 1.12 (0.90–1.41)
75053 Neviano 43 31.73 1.36 0.04 (1.00–1.83) 1.15 (0.92–1.40)
75064 Presicce 39 29.25 1.33 0.05 (0.97–1.82) 1.13 (0.91–1.41)
75021 Collepasso 49 37.39 1.31 0.04 (0.99–1.73) 1.14 (0.93–1.38)
75026 Cutrofiano 58 45.27 1.28 0.04 (0.99–1.66) 1.16 (0.95–1.39)
75039 Maglie 86 71.28 1.21 0.05 (0.98–1.49) 1.16 (0.98–1.37)
Females         
75095 San Cassiano 5 1.22 4.09 0.01 (1.70–9.82) 1.20 (0.69–2.20)
75035 Lecce 100 54.62 1.83 0.01 (1.50–2.23) 1.65 (1.33–2.00)
  1. Estimates are shown ordered by decreasing SMR. For males is the posterior mean relative risk estimated using the fully BYM model with clustering and heterogeneity random effects; for females, only the heterogeneity term was considered. The column 'Significance' must be read as "p-value ρ i of the null hypothesis of no increased risk H0 : θ i = 1 is strictly less than the indicated value". The areas reported in the table are those where θ i > 1 and ρ i < 0.05, i.e. the risk excess resulted to be statistically significant. It is worth noting that due to the approximation used for the construction of confidence intervals, the lower end of 95% CI SMR may fall below unity (although a few decimal places only) even when significance is reached.