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Table 1 Presence probability comparison. Differences in Oligoryzomys longicaudatus presence probability between four scenarios of climate change and actual conditions.

From: Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

Original model presence probability Sub area Scenario    
   1 2 3 4
1.00 11 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.87**
0.08 22 -0.01 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08*
0.81 33 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.33**
0.50 44 0.04 0.02 0.04 -0.50**
0.54 53 0.00 -0.14 -0.07 0.03
0.81 61 -0.05 -0.43** -0.40** -0.09
1.00 73 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17*
0.69 84 0.04 -0.07 -0.06 -0.69**
0.63 93 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 0.06
0.33 102 0.05 0.01 0.05 -0.15*
  1. 1Areas where HPS cases have occurred
  2. 2No HPS cases, no rodent
  3. 3No HPS cases, rodent widespread
  4. 4No HPS cases, rodent scarce.
  5. Positive values indicate an increase in presence probability. The presence probability according to the original model is shown in the first column (probabilities below 0.5 coincide with rodent actual absence). The subareas numbers indicate the corresponding areas in Figure 1. Scenario 1, temperature change alone (see text for details); Scenario 2 precipitation change; Scenario 3 temperature and precipitation change; Scenario 4 temperature and precipitation change twofold. Significant differences are indicated by * p < 0.05 and ** p < 0.01.