Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

Table 1 Presence probability comparison. Differences in Oligoryzomys longicaudatus presence probability between four scenarios of climate change and actual conditions.

Original model presence probability	Sub area	Scenario
		1	2	3	4
1.00	1¹	0.00	-0.02	-0.03	-0.87**
0.08	2²	-0.01	-0.04	-0.06	-0.08*
0.81	3³	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.33**
0.50	4⁴	0.04	0.02	0.04	-0.50**
0.54	5³	0.00	-0.14	-0.07	0.03
0.81	6¹	-0.05	-0.43**	-0.40**	-0.09
1.00	7³	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.17*
0.69	8⁴	0.04	-0.07	-0.06	-0.69**
0.63	9³	-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	0.06
0.33	10²	0.05	0.01	0.05	-0.15*

¹Areas where HPS cases have occurred
²No HPS cases, no rodent
³No HPS cases, rodent widespread
⁴No HPS cases, rodent scarce.
Positive values indicate an increase in presence probability. The presence probability according to the original model is shown in the first column (probabilities below 0.5 coincide with rodent actual absence). The subareas numbers indicate the corresponding areas in Figure 1. Scenario 1, temperature change alone (see text for details); Scenario 2 precipitation change; Scenario 3 temperature and precipitation change; Scenario 4 temperature and precipitation change twofold. Significant differences are indicated by * p < 0.05 and ** p < 0.01.

ISSN: 1476-072X