Regional projection across West Africa of HPAI-H5N1 ecological niche model. Results based on OIE case occurrence points and environmental layers for the Middle East and northeastern Africa. Model predictions are shown as ramps of model agreement in predictions: light grey = 5–9 models predict potential presence, dark grey = all models agree in predicting potential presence. Black diamonds indicate independent test data (N = 101) from the region [10, 11]. Study area is delineated by bold border.