Figure 5

Distributions of Optimal Span Size and Most Likely Cluster Radius Observed for Case 1 with Odds Ratio of 3.0. a: Case 1 Conditional Permutation Test Optimal Span Size for Odds Ratio of 3.0. This figure depicts the optimal span size selected by applying GAMs across a range of possible spans and selecting the optimal span as that which corresponds to the minimal model AIC statistic. b: Case 1 Scan Statistic Most Likely Cluster Radius for Odds Ratio of 3.0. This figure depicts the distribution of the observed radius for most likely clusters selected by the scan statistic. It is paired with Figure 4a as we can compare the tendencies of the methods to over- or under-smooth through these figures. With Figure 4a we see that for lower disease prevalence the GAM methods tend to choose a large span size, possibly over-smoothing and missing the cluster. The scan statistic tends to under-smooth and finds a most likely cluster that is much smaller than the true cluster radius, as shown in Figure 4b.