Table 1 Nodes and states of the MVEV BBN

Binary (2 states)

1. Is the location at high risk of dryland salinity (Dryland_Salinity_High_Risk) i.e. Description of node (Node name)

 Yes (50.00) i.e. state 1 (probability)

 No (50.00) i.e. state 2 (probability)

2. Vegetation cover over the previous 3 months (Past_3mo_NDVI)

 No_vegetation (50.00)

 Vegetation_present (50.00)

3. What is the likelihood of seasonal rainfall (Likelihood_of_Seasonal_Rain)

 High (50.00)

 Low (50.00)

4. What is the seasonal amount of surface runoff (Surface_Runoff_Seasonal)

 Zero (50.00)

 Above_zero (50.00)

5. Is it the breeding season for waterbirds (Breeding_Season)

 Yes (45.80)

 No (54.20)

6. What is the direction of migratory movement of waterbirds (Migratory_Species)

 Arrival (50.00)

 Departure (50.00)

7. Was there an MVEV epidemic last year (MVEV_Epidemic_Previous_Year)

 Yes (50.00)

 No (50.00)

8. Linear distance to nearest waterbody (Nearest_Wetland_or_River)

 Below_15 km (50.00)

 Equal_or_Above_15 km (50.00)

Nominal/ordinal scale (3 states)

1. Density of mosquito predators and waterbird prey (Predators_and_Prey)

 High (43.40)

 Medium (49.60)

 Low (6.99)

2. In which climatic zone is the location (Climatic_Zone)

 Tropical_WA (33.30)

 Arid_WA (33.30)

 Temperate_WA (33.30)

3. Endemicity of MVEV in WA, according to the region (WA_Region)

 Kimberley (33.30)

 Pilbara (33.30)

 Rest_of_WA (33.30)

4. Prevalence of Ciconiiformes’s immunity to MVEV (Ciconiiformes_MVEV_Immunity)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (50.00)

 Low (25.00)

5. Proportion of new immigrants in the human community (Popn_Mobility)

 High (3.30)

 Medium (33.30)

 Low (33.30)

6. Proportion of under-15 year olds in the human community (Demographic_Structure)

 Higher_Propn_Young (33.30)

 Medium_Propn_Young (33.30)

 Lower_Propn_Young (33.30)

7. Prevalence of immunity to MVEV in the human community (Immunity_Level_Popn)

 High (30.30)

 Medium (39.40)

 Low (30.30)

8. Overall risk of MVEV at the location (MVEV_Risk_Level)

 High (2.24)

 Medium (5.54)

 Low (92.20)

Nominal/ordinal scale (4 states)

1. Abundance of non-perennial lakes at the location (Non_Perennial_Lake_Grid)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (25.00)

 Low (25.00)

 Zero (25.00)

2. Abundance of perennial lakes at the location (Perennial_Lake_Grid)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (25.00)

 Low (25.00)

 Zero (25.00)

3. Density of non-perennial rivers at the location (Non_Perennial_River_Density)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (25.00)

 Low (25.00)

 Zero (25.00)

4. Density of perennial rivers at the location (Perennial_River_Density)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (25.00)

 Low (25.00)

 Zero (25.00)

5. Level of inundation of the perennial lakes at the location (Inundated_Lake_Grid1)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (25.00)

 Low (25.00)

 Zero (25.00)

6. Level of inundation of the non-perennial lakes at the location (Inundated_Lake_Grid2)

 High (18.80)

 Medium (22.90)

 Low (27.10)

 Zero (31.30)

7. Level of inundation of the perennial rivers at the location (Inundated_River_Density1)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (25.00)

 Low (25.00)

 Zero (25.00)

8. Level of inundation of the non-perennial rivers at the location (Inundated_River_Density2)

 High (12.50)

 Medium (21.90)

 Low (28.10)

 Zero (37.50)

9. Level of inundation of all lakes at the location (Inundated_Lake_Grid_Total)

 High (48.20)

 Medium (26.00)

 Low (18.00)

 Zero (7.81)

10. Level of inundation of all rivers at the location (Inundated_River_Density_Total)

 High (43.40)

 Medium (27.30)

 Low (19.90)

 Zero (9.38)

11. Level of inundation of all lakes and rivers at the location (Inundated_Lake_and_River)

 High (79.30)

 Medium (15.00)

 Low (5.03)

 Zero (0.73)

12. Abundance of saline lakes at the location (Salt_Lake_Grid)

 High (25.00)

 Medium (25.00)

 Low (25.00)

 Zero (25.00)

13. What is the season of the year (Season)

 Spring (25.00)

 Summer (25.00)

 Autumn (25.00)

 Winter (25.00)

14. What is the effect of air temperature on the Cx. annulirostris growth rate (Popn_Growth_Rate_Temp)

 Ideal (11.10)

 Positive_fast (22.20)

 Positive_slow (22.20)

 Negative (44.40)

15. What is the combined effect of air temperature and relative humidity on the Cx. annulirostris growth rate (Popn_Growth_Rate_Combined)

 Ideal (14.80)

 Positive (21.80)

 Neutral (19.00)

 Negative (44.40)

Nominal/ordinal scale (5 states)

1. How suitable is the location as a habitat for Cx. annulirostris (Mosquito_Habitat_Grid)

 Very_Good (4.96)

 Good (10.10)

 Neutral (11.10)

 Poor (5.86)

 Very_Poor (67.90)

2. How suitable is the location as a habitat for Ciconiiformes (Bird_Habitat_Grid)

 Very_Good (35.10)

 Good (34.60)

 Neutral (21.20)

 Poor (7.12)

 Very_Poor (2.01)

3. What is the population density of Cx. annulirostris at the location (Cx_annulirostris_Popn)

 Very_High (1.02)

 High (3.44)

 Medium (5.91)

 Low (5.63)

 Very_Low (84.00)

4. What is the population density of Ciconiiformes at the location (Ciconiiformes_Popn)

 Very_High (20.90)

 High (33.40)

 Medium (26.90)

 Low (13.80)

 Very_Low (4.88)

5. What is the combined effect of air temperature and relative humidity on female adult Cx. annulirostris’ longevity (F_Adult_Lifespan_Combined)

 Very_long (11.50)

 Long (16.80)

 Average (18.80)

 Short (13.10)

 Very_short (6.54)

 Unsuitable_conditions (33.30) [this state is only invoked if the state of F_Adult_Lifespan_Temp = Unsuitable_Temp. See Table S11.]

6. Minimum MVEV infection rate of Cx. annulirostris at the location (Vector_Min_Infection_Rate)

 Very_High (0.33)

 High (1.81)

 Medium (4.54)

 Low (6.56)

 Very_Low (86.80)

7. Population density of MVEV-transmitting Cx. annulirostris at the location (Transmitting_Cx_annulirostris)

 Very_High (0.14)

 High (1.04)

 Medium (3.29)

 Low (6.17)

 Very_Low (89.30)

8. Population density of Ciconiiformes susceptible to MVEV at the location (Susceptible_Ciconiiformes)

 Very_High (11.50)

 High (27.40)

 Medium (29.60)

 Low (21.10)

 Very_Low (10.40)

Categories based on numerical ranges

1. Total rainfall over the previous 3 months (Past_3mo_Rainfall)

 Below_60 mm (33.30)

 From_60 mm_to_100 mm (33.30)

 Above_100 mm (33.30)

2. Surface temperature of waterbodies over the previous 3 months (Water_Temperature)

From_20C_to_30C (33.30)

Below_10C_or_Above_40C (33.30)

All_other_Temp (33.30)

3. Average air temperature over the previous 3 months (Air_Temperature)

 Below_18C (11.10)

 From_18_to_21C (11.10)

 From_21_to_24C (11.10)

 From_24_to_27C (11.10)

 From_27_to_30C (11.10)

 From_30_to_33C (11.10)

 From_33_to_36C (11.10)

 From_36_to_39C (11.10)

 Above_39C (11.10)

4. Average relative humidity at 3 pm over the previous 3 months (Relative_Humidity_3 pm)

 From_0_to_30 (33.33)

 From_30_to_60 (33.33)

 From_60_to_100 (33.33)

5. MVEV’s extrinsic incubation period in Cx. annulirostris (Extrinsic_Incubation_Period)

 From_0_to_5_days (11.10)

 From_5_to_10_days (22.20)

 From_10_to_15_days (22.20)

 From_15_to_20_days (11.10)

 Unsuitable_Temp (33.30)

6. Effect of average air temperature on female adult Cx. annulirostris’ lifespan (F_Adult_Lifespan_Temp)

 From_25_to_30_days (11.10)

 From_20_to_25_days (25.90)

 From_15_to_20_days (7.41)

 From_10_to_15_days (7.41)

 From_5_to_10_days (7.41)

 From_0_to_5_days (7.41)

 Unsuitable_Temp (33.30)