Fig. 3

Uncertainty and uncertainty maps (5 × 5 km grid resolution). Uncertainty is represented by the kriging variance displayed on the 0–1 colour scale. a Distribution of uncertainty, represented by the kriging variance x associated with the uncertainty map of a with corresponding cumulative frequency plot F(x) (blue line). This key distribution is used to define uncertainty thresholds in terms of 20 % percentiles, which in turn give rise to the ranked spatial zones (shown in Fig. 4). b The uncertainty map corresponding to the prevalence resistance map in Fig. 1b, represented by the kriging variance. Uncertainty is lowest at the study sites where sample data were collected, as kriging is an exact interpolator. c Locations where uncertainty in estimated resistance is highest (black crosses), based on local maxima of the uncertainty map in b. In general, these locations are situated in the more peripheral regions of the domain that are furthest from the study sites. d The uncertainty map of c with a spatial constraint imposed (light grey) to exclude those regions where transmission is estimated to be unstable (as defined by MAP, 2010 [21])