Table 3 Comparison of spatial and non-spatial models for predicting total mortality during days without prolonged dust events
Variables | Multivariate linear: predicted mortality on non-dusty days (95% confidence intervals) | Spatial error (lag 1): predicted mortality on non-dusty days (95% confidence intervals) | Spatial error (lag 2): predicted mortality on non-dusty days (95% confidence intervals) | Spatial error (lag 3): predicted mortality on non-dusty days (95% confidence intervals) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SVF (in 10%) | −1.7 [−2.1, −1.4]* | −1.9 [−2.3, −1.5]* | −2.0 [−2.4, −1.6]* | −1.8 [−2.1, −1.4]* |
% low education (in 10%) | 1.5 [0.8, 2.2]* | 1.5 [0.7, 2.2]* | 1.4 [0.7, 2.2]* | 1.4 [0.7, 2.1]* |
% low income (in 10%) | 0.8 [0.2, 1.4]* | 0.6 [0.0, 1.2] | 0.7 [0.1, 0.3]* | 0.8 [0.2, 1.4]* |
% elderly (in 10%) | −2.1 [−3.1, −1.1]* | −1.8 [−2.9, −0.7]* | −1.9 [−2.9, −0.9]* | −1.9 [−3.0, −0.9]* |
Lambda | N/A | 0.3 [0.2, 0.5]* | 0.4 [0.2, 0.6]* | 0.2 [−0.1, 0.5] |
AIC | 1612.48 | 1582.04 | 1585.25 | 1610.28 |