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Table 2 Results of different spatial and spatio-temporal regression Bayesian models for child maltreatment risk. Posterior mean, standard deviation (SD) and the 95% credible interval (CI) of all parameters

From: Mapping child maltreatment risk: a 12-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood influences

  Model 1 (β) Model 2 (β + spatial heterogeneity + spatial effect) Model 3 (β + spatial heterogeneity + spatial effect + temporal heterogeneity) Model 4 (spatio-temporal autoregressive model)
Mean SD 95% CI Mean SD 95% CI Mean SD 95% CI Mean SD 95% CI
Intercept 4.055 .289 3.500, 4.615 4.335 .516 3.320, 5.328 4.284 .520 3.916, 5.304 4.135 .500 3.274, 5.127
Economic statusa −.021 .003 −.027, −.015 −.016 .004 −.024, −.009 −.016 .004 −.023, −.009 −.016 .004 −.023, −.008
Education level −1.261 .091 −1.431, −1.083 −1.464 .161 −1.745, −1.123 −1.418 .164 −1.746, −1.096 −1.391 .157 −1.690, −1.122
Policing activity .026 .006 .014, .038 .036 .011 .012, .053 .035 .012 .012, .057 .031 .011 .009, .053
Residential instability .000 .001 −.001, .001 .000 .001 −.001, .001 .000 .001 −.001, .001 .000 .001 −.001, .001
Immigrant concentration .003 .005 −.006, .013 .005 .006 −.005, .016 .005 .005 −.005, .016 .009 .006 −.003, .020
σθ     .329 .084 .136, .468 .320 .095 .063, .456 .234 .045 .162, .333
σϕ     .781 .115 .541, .979 .787 .118 .552, .976 .257 .062 .149, .391
σα        .023 .019 .001, .070 .021 .019 .001, .070
ρ           .903 .031 .827, .946
DIC 8517.9    8164.9    8166.8    8126.1   
  1. SD standard deviation, CrI credible interval, DIC deviance information criterion
  2. σθ standard deviation unstructured term
  3. σϕ standard deviation spatially structured term
  4. σα Standard deviation temporally unstructured term
  5. aThis variable was included as the cadastral value divided by 1000 to solve computational problems with the prior distributions assigned to fixed effects