Mathematical models for predicting human mobility in the context of infectious disease spread: introducing the impedance model

Table 3 Minimal AIC values, assuming that the overall probability of mobility (α) is to be fitted

Model	AIC n = 140	α n = 140	∆_{AIC (%)} n = 140	AIC n = 78	α n = 78	∆_{AIC (%)} n = 78
CDRs	− 5200	0.14		25,870	0.14
IM	9000	0.01	+ 273	20,171	0.5	− 22
GM	16,185	0.01	+ 411	20,616	0.5	− 20
RM	9005	0.05	+ 273	23,696	0.09	− 8.4

AIC values obtained with each mobility model, for the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic, assuming that the overall probability of mobility (α) is not given by CDRs, but fitted. The indicated models are: impedance model (IM), gravity model (GM), and radiation model (RM). Results are presented for the two spatial definitions. ∆_AIC corresponds to the variation from the optimal AIC value derived from the CDRs

ISSN: 1476-072X