Fig. 2

Potential geographic distribution of USUV in Europe. a Climatic suitability estimated by the environmental niche model, and b the yearly mean absolute number of days of R₀ > 1 simulated by the epidemiological SEIR model. Gray areas in b denote regions with a dry season that were not included in the SEIR model. Both models use the same E-OBS climate data for 2003–2016. Locations of recorded cases for the environmental niche model were rarified (in comparison to Fig. 1) to avoid spatial autocorrelation (see “Methods”)