Fig. 4

Temporal patterns of the average R₀ values for three selected regions of Europe. a Austria and the Pannonian Basin, b northern Italy, and c Germany and the Netherlands. (1) Spatial representation of both models for years with USUV events. Color coding in the maps shows the average daily R₀ values throughout June to September for the given years. Gray areas denote climate types with dry seasons, thus the SEIR model was not applied there. Cross-hatching indicates areas where the environmental niche model suggests absence of USUV, based on climate data for the whole time period from 2003 to 2016. (2) Time series curves illustrate the daily R₀ value, averaged over all occurrence records of the respective region for each given year