Table 2 Results of the Bayesian models

Fixed effects

 (Intercept)

76.51

[74.11 78.06]

115.62

[77.90 152.81]

1.73

[− 4.02 7.35]

 Humidity (%)

–

–

2.13

[1.56 2.70]

0.11

[0.08 0.17]

 Wind speed (km/h)

–

–

− 1.60

[− 2.34 − 0.86]

− 0.09

− 0.13 − 0.05]

 Intersections crossed (N)

− 0.05

[− 0.12 0.02]

− 1.84

[− 2.73 − 0.94]

− 0.02

[− 0.06 0.02]

 Speed (km/h)

− 0.02

[− 0.03 − 0.00]

− 1.65

[− 1.87 − 1.44]

0.02

[0.01 0.03]

 Slope (%)

0.00

[− 0.03 0.04]

− 0.25

[− 0.82 0.32]

− 0.01

[− 0.03 0.02]

Residential street

Ref

Ref

Ref

 Trunk or motorway

4.09

[3.02 5.14]

56.31

[40.55 72.22]

1.82

[0.96 2.71]

 Primary road

3.35

[2.70 4.00]

47.21

[38.96 55.39]

1.28

[0.83 1.73]

 Secondary road

2.42

[1.98 2.86]

36.77

[31.29 42.44]

1.01

[0.72 1.31]

 Tertiary road

1.49

[0.96 1.82]

28.64

[23.64 33.76]

0.75

[0.49 1.02]

 Unclassified or service road

0.75

[0.07 1.42]

3.10

[− 5.10 11.40]

0.07

[− 0.36 0.51]

Random effects (intercept)

 Monday

0.01

[− 0.35 0.40]

− 5.32

[− 21.57 11.15]

0.04

[− 1.00 1.10]

 Tuesday

0.09

[− 0.23 0.56]

22.80

[7.08 40.01]

0.84

[− 0.19 1.96]

 Wednesday

0.10

[− 0.22 0.55]

− 19.82

[− 36.15 − 3.47]

− 1.01

[− 2.09 0.04]

 Friday

− 0.07

[− 0.48 0.27]

− 3.56

[− 19.65 13.02]

0.08

− 0.96 1.14]

 Saturday

− 0.10

[− 0.56 0.23]

9.21

[− 6.90 26.12]

0.06

[− 1.00 1.14]

Participant I

0.68

[− 0.82 3.11]

24.80

[− 1.60 52.70]

3.30

[− 2.17 8.74]

Participant II

− 0.34

[− 1.82 2.05]

− 43.77

[− 70.17 − 16.08]

− 2.34

[− 7.77 3.10]

Participant III

0.40

[− 1.08 2.80]

36.25

[9.36 64.54]

− 0.80

[−  6.23 4.60]

Moving average

 MA [1]

0.61

[0.57 0.64]

0.57

[0.54 0.59]

0.68

[0.65 0.71]

 MA [2]

0.20

[0.16 0.23]

0.18

[0.15 0.21]

0.31

[0.27 0.34]

 MA [3]

0.08

[0.05 0.11]

0.08

[0.06 0.10]

0.14

[0.11 0.16]

Bayes marginal R-squared

0.419

[0.401 0.436]

0.397

[0.381 0.413]

0.480

[0.459 0.501]

Bayes conditional R-squared

0.431

[0.414 0.447]

0.516

[0.502 0.524]

0.650

[0.641 0.658]

Waic

20,628

46,503

19,438