Fig. 4

Model fitting and parameter inference of the S-SEIR model. A Model fitting to weekly case numbers (orange line) in the United States. The line and shaded area represent the median and \(95\%\) CI, respectively. The blue line means the estimated cases and the orange line means the reported cases. B Distribution of infectious periods in the United States. C Distribution of report rates in the United States. Monthly posterior estimates from January 6 to August 2, 2020, are provided. In B and C, the center line shows the median, box bounds represent 25th (\(Q_1\)) and 75th (\(Q_3\)) percentiles, and whiskers show \(Q_1-1.5 \times IQR\) and \(Q_3 + 1.5 \times IQR\). IQR means interquartile range. D Model fitting to weekly case numbers in the four states (regions) with the most cases. All distributions in this figure are from \(n = 100\) ensemble members