Fig. 6
From: Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk
The estimated counterfactual national cumulative confirmed cases by strengthening NPIs.A The estimated counterfactual national cumulative confirmed cases by strengthening the intensity of \(P_2\) and \(P_6\) in all regions. The intensity of each NPI is set to 100. The baseline scenario is the epidemic curve estimated by the S-SEIR model. B–C The counterfactual national cumulative confirmed cases at \(t = 30\) week. The intensity of each NPI is set to 100. B strengthening the intensity of \(P_2\) in different intervention regions. C Strengthening the intensity of \(P_6\) in different intervention regions. In B– C, the center line shows the median, box bounds represent 25th (\(Q_1\)) and 75th (\(Q_3\)) percentiles, and whiskers show \(Q_1-1.5 \times IQR\) and \(Q_3 + 1.5 \times IQR\). IQR means interquartile range. All distributions are obtained from \(n = 100\) ensemble members